The Arizona Diamondbacks, fresh off sweeping Miami Marlins, are in Boston to take on the Red Sox in a critical three-game must-win series. The first pitch is at 4:10 PM this afternoon.
The D-backs are in second place in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by 4.0 games, and hold the top spot in the NL Wild Card Race, a 0.5 game ahead of the Padres. They are ahead of the Braves by 3.5 games and the Mets by five games.
Every game from here on out is a must-win. The D-backs' 17 wins and .737 win pct. lead the Majors since July 29, ahead of the Padres’ 15 wins and .714 win pct. Since July 1, the D-backs lead the
Majors with a 31-13 record.
The D-backs play their first series in Boston and at Fenway Park since 2016 and it's just their fifth all-time. Their last win in Boston was in 2013.
The D-backs are 31-34 against teams over .500, a stat that has to improve for them to have a shot at playoffs and it has to start now against the Red Sox who are above .500. They rank 11th in MLB against teams over .500.
RHP Ryne Nelson, 8-6, 4.35 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 101 Strikeouts in 124 Innings
Nelson is still fighting for his rotation spot despite being the D-backs best starting pitcher since July 1st. He's been on a tear since then and must perform well again. He'll need his pinpoint command, (just 29 walks on the year), against the Red Sox tonight.
In his start against the Rays last Friday, Nelson allowed one run over 6.1 innings, pitching excellent once again.
Since July 1st, Nelson has made eight starts and nine appearances. Over those 56 innings, he has an ERA of 2.73 and a FIP of 2.59. He gave up just 42 hits, 17 runs, 11 walks, and struck out 55. The team is 7-2 in this span.
Nelson has allowed one or fewer runs in five of those starts and allowed two or fewer runs in six of them. His mix of high fastballs and elite command against improving off-speed pitches have been lethal against hitters. Opponents have hit just .209 against him with an OPS of .593 over this range.
In August, opponents are hitting his four-seam fastball with an average of .195 while his cutter is being hit for just a .111 average. This showcases how elite those two pitches have been for him just in this month alone.
RHP Brayan Bello, 11-5, 4.80 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 120 Strikeouts in 123.2 Innings
Bello started off the season red-hot but like the rest of the Red Sox pitching staff, he's cooled off considerably. However, his last two starts, he's pitched 12 innings and allowed just two runs, signaling perhaps a return to form.
Walking batters has been a significant problem for Bello. He has 47 walks and a 1.407 WHIP as he's allowed far too many baserunners. Over his 23 starts, he's walked at least three batters in eight of them including each of his last three. D-backs hitters will need to be patient against him.
Bello has been hit hard for power by left-handers. Lefties have hit .269 against him with a .841 OPS which includes a .490 slugging percentage. 13 homers have been hit by lefties whereas six have been hit by right-handers.
Bello has struggled at Fenway Park this year as well with a 5.28 ERA over his 11 games and 58 innings. He's given up 37 runs there and walked 25 batters as his control has been his main detriment that Arizona has to exploit.
If they can lay off his sinker and avoid falling into his ground ball trap (51% ground ball rate), then they can work plenty of counts and snag some walks and get runners on base for their big hitters.
Starting Lineups
The offense has been on fire lately as they lead MLB in runs and runs per game. The D-backs’ 36 homers since Aug. 1 are the most in the Majors. the D-backs have 14 innings of 2+ runs scored in the seventh inning or later, the most in the Majors since August 1st.
They are never out of the game especially late in ballgames with this kind of late-game clutch offense. The D-backs' 15 wins when trailing by 1+ runs in the seventh inning or later are tied for second in the Majors.
Jake McCarthy has homered twice in his last three games and his 21 RBI in August rank second in MLB. In his last 23 games, he is hitting an unbelievable .400.
Corbin Carroll is in the lineup and he holds a .946 OPS in August which ranks 10th among MLB outfielders, plus he's homered three times in his last six games as he experiences a major power surge since the All-Star Break. He's reached base in 31 straight starts and has scored a run in 13 straight starts.
Joc Pederson has been experiencing a high level of patience this year with a 13% walk rate. That's above his carrer average 11.5%. It's been especially impressive lately as he's walked in five straight games and in nine of his last 12. He continues to get on base regularly and raise his already career-high OPS.
Adrian Del Castillo is the second player in MLB history to hit both a grand slam and a walk-off home run within their first 9 career games. His 14 RBI are tied for the second-most in a player's first nine career games. In addition, his 7 hits were the most by a D-back in their first three games of their career. He will look to stay hot.
Unique and historical stats provided from the Arizona Diamondbacks game notes.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have to stay patient at the plate and play excellent defense in order to win today against the Boston Red Sox.
